Whenever you hear talk of a decline in official tobacco consumption, ask yourself this question: “Are we really smoking less? Or are we buying cheaper elsewhere?”
Behind the declining figures often lies a grim reality: contraband cigarettes thrive, while the state rejoices prematurely, and manufacturers continue to pocket their share – everywhere, all the time.
49.4% of cigarettes consumed: not in tobacconists
A recent study by KPMG, commissioned by Philip Morris, is clear cut: 24.7 billion illegal cigarettes were consumed in France in 2024. This represents 49.4% of total consumption, or almost one in two cigarettes not purchased legally from a tobacconist.
This sharply rising phenomenon (+60% between 2020 and 2024) confirms the failure of a strategy based solely on tax pressure.
The stakes are many – and far from minor
Taxation = a platform for the illegal
It doesn’t matter whether you buy a pack in France, Spain or Luxembourg: the profit margin remains the same for manufacturers. It’s the State – via taxes – that loses out when tobacco is bought outside the legal network. As a result, billions of euros escape the public purse.
Public health at risk
This parallel tobacco – often counterfeit – is delivered without any health guarantees. The ingredients, provenance and processes involved are completely unregulated.
In addition to failing to comply with standards, this represents a direct risk, aggravating smoking by keeping the product accessible despite price increases.
Gap between rhetoric and reality
The state proudly claims a drop in legal sales. Yet smoking prevalence remains stagnant. Smokers haven’t disappeared: they’ve just changed purchasing channels.
Who really benefits from this system?
- Criminal organizations: they control trafficking, counterfeiting and parallel distribution networks.
- Tobacco manufacturers: their margins remain fixed, whether you buy in France or elsewhere.
- The State: loses between 3.8 and 9 billion euros a year, depending on estimates (KPMG, Ernst & Young).
Ineffective control, weak signals… yet demanding
Operation Colbert II, carried out at the end of March, resulted in the confiscation of 27 tonnes of illegal tobacco, notably concealed in a truckload of salads – demonstrating the growing sophistication of criminal networks. 108 arrests were made, and 52 administrative closures requested Le Monde.fr.
These seizures are a reminder that the problem goes beyond regulation: it becomes a matter of safety and public health.
How can we move forward?
Reduce the legal price, not the product
Rather than increasing the tax burden, the government could consider a modulated tax system to encourage people to switch to less harmful products or cessation devices.
Encouraging cessation through alternatives
Countries such as Italy and Sweden, where vaping and other substitutes are encouraged, are achieving better results. France, by remaining solely punitive, feeds the black market.
Empowering industry
Systems such as Codentify, designed to trace and verify the authenticity of packages, do exist. They require independent supervision, as recommended by the WHO, rather than management by the manufacturers themselves.
The real hero is you: breaking out of this toxic circle
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